NFP May: +172K — strong beat vs +85K consensus  ·  Next: CPI May on Jun 10

Next FOMC

11days

Jun 17, 2026

Warsh's first FOMC · SEP + dot plot


Hold

99%

Cut

0.5%

Hike

0.3%

CME FedWatch · Jun 6, 2026 · 3.50–3.75%

Fear & Greed index

CME FedWatch — meeting probabilities 2026

HoldCut 25bpsHike 25bpsHike 50bps+
Jun 17
99%
11d
Jul 29
84%
14.8%
53d
Sep 16
68%
8%
20%
102d
Oct 28
55%
15%
24%
144d
Dec 9
43%
28%
22%
186d

CME FedWatch · 3.50–3.75% · Jun 6, 2026

Key Indicators

NFP — Jobs Report

Beat
📊 Equities: Mixed₿ Crypto: Bad for market
Period: May 2026Released Jun 5, 2026

Actual

+172K

Consensus

+85K

Previous

+179K

📅Next: Jul 3, 2026

view analysis ▾

CPI — Consumer Inflation

Beat
📉 Equities: Bad for market₿ Crypto: Bad for market
Period: April 2026Released May 13, 2026

Actual

3.9% YoY

Consensus

3.7%

Previous

📅Next: Jun 10, 2026← next, key pre-FOMC

view analysis ▾

PCE — Fed Inflation

Inline
Period: April 2026Released May 30, 2026

Actual

3.29% Core

Consensus

~3.3%

Previous

3.24%

📅Next: Jun 25, 2026PCE May

view analysis ▾

GDP — US Economy

Miss
📉 Equities: Bad for market₿ Crypto: Good for market
Period: Q1 2026Released May 29, 2026

Actual

+1.6% ann.

Consensus

+2.0%

Previous

+0.5% Q4

📅Next: Jul 30, 2026Q2 Advance

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PPI — Producer Prices

Beat
📉 Equities: Bad for market₿ Crypto: Bad for market
Period: April 2026Released May 15, 2026

Actual

+9.8% YoY

Consensus

~5.5%

Previous

+2.7% MoM

📅Next: Jun 11, 2026PPI May

view analysis ▾

Jobless Claims — Weekly Unemployment

Upcoming
Period: May 2026

Actual

225K

Consensus

~220K

Previous

212K

📅Next: Jun 12, 2026

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FOMC — Rate Decision

Upcoming
Period: Jun 17, 2026

Actual

Consensus

Hold 3.50–3.75%

Previous

Hold (Apr 29)

📅Next: Jun 17, 2026SEP + dot plot + Warsh press conf

view analysis ▾

Polymarket — Fed 2026

FOMC Jun — no change98%
0 cuts in 202670%
1 cut in 202619%
Rate hike in 202641%
1st cut in Dec28%
Warsh cuts at 1st FOMC2%

Live data · Polymarket · Jun 6, 2026